Mathematical Modeling of HIV Spread and Control Strategies in Nigeria: A Case Study Using Sample Data from Regional Populations

This paper introduces a mathematical model for analyzing the spread of HIV in Nigeria, focusing on the impact of control strategies like antiretroviral therapy (ART) and preventive interventions. A modified SITR (Susceptible, Infected, Treated, Removed) compartmental model is developed to capture the dynamics of HIV transmission. The model uses real-world data to simulate various scenarios over a 10-year period, revealing the role of ART in reducing HIV prevalence and highlighting preventive measures. Findings indicate that scaling up ART coverage and improving adherence significantly reduce new infections and mortality rates. The study offers policy insights for enhancing HIV control measures in Nigeria, suggesting that a combination of ART, behavioral interventions, and robust healthcare strategies are necessary to curb the epidemic effectively.