THE DETERMINANTS OF HOUSEHOLD FERTILITY DECISION IN INDIA: POISSON REGRESSION ESTIMATION OF NUMBER OF CHILDREN

The household decision on the number of children to have is crucial not only for the family but also for the economic development of nations. The decline in fertility rates in recent years has implications for the demographic behaviour and labour force of the economy. This paper examines the factors influencing the fertility decision i.e. the number of children of households in India using 2011-12 Indian Human Development Survey-II data applying the Poisson regression estimation method. The estimated results show that household income, women’s education and age at marriage and contraceptive use drive the fertility decision of households in India. Though the effect of women employment on fertility is positive, the combined spousal income depresses fertility choice, exhibiting the price effect of women earnings. The incidence rate ratios indicate that uneducated, working and urban women are expected to have higher fertility. An increase in the age of women at marriage, contraceptive use, and household income are expected to reduce the number of children, while non-Muslim women are expected to have fewer children relative to Muslim women.