Incidence and Death Rates from COVID-19 Are Not Always Coupled: An Analysis of Temporal Data on Local, Federal, and National Levels

Borgmann, Stefan and Meintrup, David and Reimer, Kerstin and Schels, Helmut and Nowak-Machen, Martina (2021) Incidence and Death Rates from COVID-19 Are Not Always Coupled: An Analysis of Temporal Data on Local, Federal, and National Levels. Healthcare, 9 (3). p. 338. ISSN 2227-9032

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Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 has caused a deadly pandemic worldwide, placing a burden on local health care systems and economies. Infection rates with SARS-CoV-2 and the related mortality of COVID-19 are not equal among countries or even neighboring regions. Based on data from official German health authorities since the beginning of the pandemic, we developed a case-fatality prediction model that correctly predicts COVID-19-related death rates based on local geographical developments of infection rates in Germany, Bavaria, and a local community district city within Upper Bavaria. Our data point towards the proposal that local individual infection thresholds, when reached, could lead to increasing mortality. Restrictive measures to minimize the spread of the virus could be applied locally based on the risk of reaching the individual threshold. Being able to predict the necessity for increasing hospitalization of COVID-19 patients could help local health care authorities to prepare for increasing patient numbers.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Universal Eprints > Medical Science
Depositing User: Managing Editor
Date Deposited: 17 Mar 2023 04:49
Last Modified: 08 Jun 2024 07:24
URI: http://journal.article2publish.com/id/eprint/1136

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